Your churn exposure, and what earlier warning is worth
Drag the sliders or type the figures. The right-hand side recalculates as you go. Defaults are illustrative, not a benchmark.
Formulas are in the next section. Share this exact scenario with the link in your address bar; it updates as you change the inputs.
Four formulas, no multipliers
Everything on this page follows from your inputs. The only judgement call is the assumption slider, and it is yours.
ARR × annual gross revenue churnGross, before expansion. If you only know net churn, your gross figure is higher.churned revenue ÷ 12 · churned revenue ÷ 250Framed this way because a monthly number is what a renewal review sees.churned revenue ÷ average contract valueRounded to whole accounts. Large accounts churn less often but cost more when they do.churned revenue × your assumptionThe assumption is the share of churn that an earlier, owned intervention would have kept. We do not set it for you; set it from your saves history and change it to test the range.revenue kept × 3Deliberately simple: no compounding, no expansion on kept accounts, no discounting.WHAT IS LEFT OUT The cost of replacing churned ARR with new sales, the expansion you lose with each churned account, the referrals that go with it, and the cost of HyperOrbit itself. Each of them moves the result in the same direction, and each depends on figures only you have. Bring them to the call.
Eight weeks of warning is what the agents are for
Sees the drift before the renewal call
Usage, support, sentiment and CRM read together per account, with churn and renewal watch and a named owner for every risk.
More about Atlas ›Churn and renewal watch
How revenue and CS teams run the agents on the renewal book: the signals, the plays and the Monday brief.
See the solution ›Churn prevention with AI agents
The twelve early-warning signals, three playbooks and the risk-brief template, whether or not you run HyperOrbit.
Read the guide ›Before you trust the number
Why is there no industry benchmark?
Because published churn benchmarks vary widely by segment, contract size and how churn is defined, and a benchmark you cannot trace is worse than none. Your own gross churn figure is the right input.
Where does the 25% default come from?
It is a placeholder so the page shows something before you touch it, not a claim. Replace it with the share of at-risk accounts your team has historically kept once it knew in time.
Why eight weeks?
It is the horizon the churn guide is built around: long enough for an owned intervention to land before the renewal conversation, short enough that the signals are still fresh. Use whatever horizon your renewal cycle allows.
Do you store my numbers?
No. The calculator runs in your browser and the scenario lives in the page link. Only if you send it to yourself do the inputs and results go to our form service, which emails them to you.
Should I use gross or net churn?
Gross. Net churn hides losses behind expansion from other accounts. The revenue you lose is what the agents are trying to catch early.
Can you run this on my real accounts?
Yes. A walkthrough runs Atlas on your own sources and shows the accounts drifting right now, with the ARR behind each.
See which accounts are drifting today.
A 30-minute walkthrough on your own sources. The agents do the reading; you see the at-risk list with the ARR attached.